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Prediction for CME (2024-10-03T12:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-03T12:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33703/-1
CME Note: Full halo CME observed in SOHO LASCO, and full halo directed slightly more eastward in STEREO COR2A. The source is an X9.0 flare from AR 3842 observed in many wavelengths but mainly SDO AIA 131, starting at 2024-10-03T12:08Z and peaking at T12:18Z. Also observed as an EUV wave and dimming in SDO AIA 171/193 and GOES SUVI 284, with surface brightening in SDO AIA 304. Arrival signature is characterized by a shock: a sharp initial jump in magnetic field (Bz: 6.16nT to 14.46nT, Bt: 8.41nT to 14.94nT) with continued fluctuation as the signature has progressed (peak Bt is 16.2nT). There were also enhancements in solar wind speed (approx. 372km/s to 525km/s), temperature (approx. 75kK to approx. 250kK) and particle density (approx. 1p/cc to approx. 3p/cc). Bz has remained mostly positive in the initial phase. While this signature is likely the result of the arrival of the 2024-10-03T12:48Z CME associated with the X9.0 flare from AR 3842, several preceding CMEs may have been swept into the front of the faster 2024-10-03T12:48Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-06T06:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-06T01:30Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

NASA GSFC M2M ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a4b1
Ejecta settings d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrzqs
cormode: single


Results based off a 4-CME bulk simulation (please see https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/33720/1) to determine if CME 2024-10-03T12:48Z, associated with an X9.0-class solar flare, would be altered by the initial fronts of CMEs 2024-10-01T23:09Z, 2024-10-02T06:36Z, and 2024-10-02T14:24Z. From timeline inspection and comparison with the single simulation of CME 2024-10-03T12:48Z by itself, we do see the Earth arrival associated with CME 2024-10-03T12:48Z pushed from 2024-10-06T04:30Z (1-CME simulation) to 2024-10-06T01:30Z (4-CME simulation). This earlier arrival is added to CME Scoreboard. All directly listed impacts to locations on DONKI are from the initial fronts associated with CMEs 2024-10-01T23:09Z, 2024-10-02T06:36Z, and 2024-10-02T14:24Z as both fronts did not combine.

Lead Time: 59.40 hour(s)
Difference: 5.42 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2024-10-03T19:31Z

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